Elke maandelijkse update belichten we een trending topic dat van invloed is op de wereldwijde zeevrachtmarkt.
Early April is no longer defined by fragile de-escalation alone, but by a more complex mix of diplomacy and renewed operational pressure. Mediators are working to extend the temporary ceasefire beyond 22 April, but the market is no longer reading Hormuz as a clean reopening story. Since 13 April, the U.S. has begun a naval blockade of Iranian ports, while renewed tension in and around the Gulf has again pushed energy markets higher and reminded shippers how sensitive the wider economy remains to this corridor.
That distinction matters because markets are reacting to execution, not diplomacy alone. Maersk says commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz may resume only for a limited time and that full maritime certainty is not yet assured. AP’s reporting on the blockade also makes clear that transit to non-Iranian ports may continue, but under military presence and continued uncertainty. In other words, sentiment is calmer than at the height of the crisis, but the operating environment is still conditional rather than normal.
CAROZ’s eye opener:
The market is not short on ships globally; it is short on predictable capacity where geopolitical risk is highest. That distinction has become even clearer over the past few days. Diplomatic efforts to extend the temporary ceasefire may have improved sentiment at headline level, but the market is no longer treating the Strait of Hormuz as a straightforward reopening story. Maersk’s latest guidance still says that any commercial transit opportunity may only be limited in time and that full maritime certainty is not yet assured, while AP reports that the current blockade setup still allows some movement to non-Iranian ports, but under military presence and continued uncertainty.
What makes Hormuz especially important is that the impact goes far beyond regional container flows. According to the U.S. EIA, the strait accounts for more than one-quarter of global seaborne oil trade, about one-fifth of global oil and petroleum product consumption, and roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade. Around 84% of the crude and condensate and 83% of the LNG moving through Hormuz is destined for Asia, which shows how quickly disruption in this corridor feeds into manufacturing, transport, fuel costs and consumer pricing far outside the Gulf itself.
From a 4PL perspective, this remains a market for disciplined optionality, not headline-driven optimism. The real operational issue is not whether a route is politically “open,” but whether it is commercially dependable enough to build supply chains around. That is exactly why the market still feels conditional: carriers continue pricing for risk, shippers continue paying for flexibility, and even in the Netherlands the uncertainty remains tangible, with around 100 Dutch-owned vessels still caught in the wider Gulf disruption. At the same time, the IMF has now cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and raised its inflation forecast to 4.4%, underlining that this is no longer only a regional shipping story but a wider economic one.
Stability may look closer on the surface, but the market underneath it remains highly conditional.
Want to know more?
Each monthly update we will highlight the developments within the Ocean freight market including the following topics:
In this month’s Market Update:
- Trending topic: Middle East Network Reset
- Rail & Air | Asia – Europe
- Space & rate developments
- Port developments & congestion
- Schedule reliability
- TEU per operator
- How to mitigate the risks
